China’s Non-manufacturing PMI was 53.9 Percent in July

China's Non-manufacturing PMINational Bureau of Statistics of China 2016-08-03 16:25. Department of Service Statistics of NBS China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP). In July 2016, China’s non-manufacturing purchasing manager index was 53.9 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month, having risen for two consecutive months, and non-manufacturing industry showed good momentum of steady growth, the growth rate increased slightly.

In view of different industries, non-manufacturing purchasing manager index of service industry was 52.6 percent, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous month, continued to be higher than the threshold, and the growth rate of total business increased. Of which, the indices of transport via railway, air transport, telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services, Internet, software and information technology services, monetary financial services, capital market services, renting and leasing activities and business services, were higher than the threshold obviously, and the total business increased fast. The indices of transport via road, water transport, restaurants, insurance, real estate, resident services and repair, were below the threshold, and the total enterprise business decreased. Non-manufacturing purchasing manager index of construction industry achieved 61.1 percent, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points over the previous month, continued to be positioned in the high level of the range, while the expansion slowed down.

New orders index was 49.9 percent, down by 0.9 percentage points over the previous month, lower than the threshold, indicating that the market demand of the non-manufacturing industry decreased slightly. In view of different industries, the new orders index of service industry was 48.7 percent, decreased 0.7 percentage points over the previous month. The new orders index of construction industry was 56.5 percent, decreased 2.3 percentage points over the previous month.

Input price index was 51.4 percent, down by 0.2 percentage points over the previous month, sill higher than the threshold, indicating that the input price during the process of production and operation of non-manufacturing enterprises continued to increase, while the amount of increase narrowed. In view of different industries, the intermediate input price index of service industry was 51.2 percent, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points over the previous month. The input price index of construction industry was 52.8 percent, an increase of 3.1 percentage points over the previous month.

 

The sales price index was 49.5 percent, down by 1.1 percentage points over last month, dropped below the threshold, indicating that the overall level of non-manufacturing sales price reversed the increase into decrease. In view of different industries, the sales price index of service industry was 49.5 percent, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points over the previous month. The sales price index of construction industry was 49.8 percent, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points over the previous month.

Employment index was 48.5 percent, decreased 0.2 percentage points over the previous month, was below the threshold, indicating the labor employment of non-manufacturing enterprises continued to decrease. In view of different industries, the employment index of service industry was 48.2 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month. The employment index of construction industry was 50.7 percent, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points over the previous month.

Business activities expectation index was 59.5 percent, an increase of 0.9 percentage points over last month, and enterprises continued to remain optimistic about the future market development expectations.

Main Indices of China’s Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally adjusted)
Unit: %
  Non-manufacturing PMI New Orders Index Input Price Index Sales Price Index Employment Index Business Activities Expectation Index
2015-July 53.9 50.1 48.9 47.4 49.2 60.0
August 53.4 49.6 49.6 47.8 49.5 59.7
September 53.4 50.2 50.8 47.9 49.5 60.0
October 53.1 51.2 51.2 48.8 49.6 61.1
November 53.6 50.2 49.3 47.7 48.4 60.0
December 54.4 51.7 49.0 48.2 48.9 58.3
2016-January 53.5 49.6 49.9 47.7 48.8 58.4
February 52.7 48.7 50.5 48.3 48.9 59.5
March 53.8 50.8 51.4 49.5 48.2 59.0
April 53.5 48.7 52.1 49.1 49.2 59.1
May 53.1 49.2 51.6 49.8 49.1 57.8
June 53.7 50.8 51.6 50.6 48.7 58.6
July 53.9 49.9 51.4 49.5 48.5 59.5
Other Indices of China’s Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally adjusted)
Unit: %
  Foreign New Orders Index Unfilled Orders Index Stock Index Supplier Delivery Time Index
2015-July 46.2 43.4 46.7 51.9
August 46.6 43.7 45.8 51.7
September 51.1 43.7 46.1 51.7
October 49.5 43.5 45.9 51.6
November 49.4 44.4 46.6 51.2
December 50.9 44.5 45.5 52.1
2016-January 47.3 43.9 45.8 51.9
February 47.7 42.9 45.4 51.6
March 47.8 43.4 45.9 51.4
April 45.7 43.6 45.4 51.8
May 49.5 43.6 45.6 51.4
June 48.6 43.1 46.0 52.3
July 47.5 42.8 46.3 51.9

Annotations: 

  1. Explanatory Notes

 China non-manufacturing purchasing manager index system constituted by 10 sub-indices, they are business activity index, new orders index, new export orders index in hand orders index, stock index, input price index, sales price index, employment index, supplier delivery time index, and business activities expectation index. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development, A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates expansion from the previous month, while below indicates contraction.

  1. Statistical Coverage

 The statistical coverage has been adjusted since June 2015. Non-manufacturing industry divisions in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities” (GB/T4754-2011) were extended to 31 from original 27, and sampling enterprises were extended to 4000 from original 1200.

  1. Survey Methods

 Non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey was conducted in PPS ( Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, using the non-manufacturing sectors as the selecting layers, distribution of sample size was according to their value-added accounted for the proportion of total non-manufacturing value-added, and samples within layers and the main business revenue of the enterprises were selected by the PPS.

The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.

  1. Calculation Methods

 Non-manufacturing purchasing managers survey involves 10 questions on production, new orders (business required), export, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers delivery time, and business activities expectation. Diffusion index was calculated on each question, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers.

  1. Seasonal Adjustment Note

 The purchasing managers survey is a monthly survey, great fluctuations of data which affected by seasonal factors. The sub-indices of non-manufacturing PMI data released currently were all seasonally adjusted. 

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